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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


St. Louis

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:15.0
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:38
Current Record:27-6
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-615.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Louis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9South Carolina Upstate (225.0)ASunH76-59W100%0.0
11-14Santa Clara (101.0)WCCH62-74L0%0.0
11-19Texas A&M (102.0)SECN70-49W100%0.0
11-20Kansas (5.0)B12A73-59L0%0.0
11-24Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCH61-51W100%0.0
11-28Washington (88.0)P12A66-61L0%0.0
12-2Valparaiso (58.0)HorzH62-49W100%0.0
12-5North Texas (247.0)SBH67-63W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Martin (312.0)OVCH73-51W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCH72-45W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Marymount (211.0)WCCH65-44W100%0.0
12-28SIU Edwardsville (304.0)OVCH68-41W100%0.0
12-31New Mexico (2.0)MWCH60-46W100%0.0
1-4Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH67-59W100%0.0
1-10Massachusetts (57.0)A10H70-62W100%0.0
1-12Temple (42.0)A10A64-54L0%0.0
1-19Rhode Island (201.0)A10H80-82L0%0.0
1-23Duquesne (229.0)A10A64-73W100%0.0
1-26St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A57-67W100%0.0
1-31Butler (22.0)A10H75-58W100%0.0
2-2Dayton (114.0)A10H81-52W100%0.0
2-6Fordham (228.0)A10A73-90W100%0.0
2-9Richmond (92.0)A10A46-56W100%0.0
2-16Charlotte (68.0)A10H76-58W100%0.0
2-19Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H76-62W100%0.0
2-22Butler (22.0)A10A61-65W100%0.0
2-27Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H70-53W100%0.0
3-2George Washington (147.0)A10A58-66W100%0.0
3-6Xavier (87.0)A10A77-66L0%0.0
3-9La Salle (46.0)A10H78-54W100%0.0
3-15Charlotte (68.0)A10N72-55W100%0.0
3-16Butler (22.0)A10N67-56W100%0.0
3-17Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10N62-56W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Louis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Louis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Louis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. LouisA1026.0326.0381.2981.2916.2916.29
ButlerA105.015.0183.3383.333.343.34
Virginia CommonwealthA103.523.5281.2581.252.202.20
CharlotteA103.493.4970.0070.001.401.40
MassachusettsA102.072.0767.7467.740.730.73
XavierA102.072.0753.3353.330.140.14
RichmondA102.062.0658.0658.060.330.33
TempleA102.042.0470.9770.970.860.86
Saint Joseph'sA102.042.0460.0060.000.410.41
DaytonA102.042.0456.6756.670.270.27
La SalleA102.042.0472.4172.410.920.92
George WashingtonA102.002.0044.8344.83-0.21-0.21
DuquesneA101.971.9727.5927.59-0.88-0.88
FordhamA101.971.9723.3323.33-1.05-1.05
St. BonaventureA101.971.9750.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA101.971.9725.0025.00-0.99-0.99
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.641.6429.1729.17-0.68-0.68
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.631.6336.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Tennessee MartinOVC1.621.6225.9325.93-0.78-0.78
Santa ClaraWCC1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
Loyola MarymountWCC1.591.5932.2632.26-0.56-0.56
KansasB121.561.5684.8584.851.091.09
Southern IllinoisMVC1.551.5544.8344.83-0.16-0.16
South Carolina UpstateASun1.541.5446.6746.67-0.10-0.10
New MexicoMWC1.541.5487.8887.881.171.17
ValparaisoHorz1.541.5480.6580.650.940.94
North TexasSB1.521.5237.9337.93-0.37-0.37
Savannah St.MEAC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
Texas A&MSEC1.521.5256.2556.250.190.19
WashingtonP121.521.5253.1253.120.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.210.2165.5265.520.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.190.1993.7593.750.170.17
PennsylvaniaIvy0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
BelmontOVC0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
New Orleansind0.140.1418.1818.18-0.09-0.09
PortlandWCC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1371.4371.430.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
BradleyMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1210.0010.00-0.10-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Western KentuckySB0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
StetsonASun0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CreightonMVC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
Ohio St.B100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
MercerASun0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas St.WAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
LehighPat0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
MississippiSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
DukeACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
MarquetteBE0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
DavidsonSC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Southern CaliforniaP120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TroySB0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
George MasonCAA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0753.8553.850.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0465.5265.520.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
TexasB120.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01